India maps, sites, begin to track swine flu August 14, 2009
Posted by Angelo in Collaboration, Visualization, pandemic.Tags: H1N1, India
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As India copes with the spread of swine flu, we are beginning to see a more forms of collaboration.
This site was put together not be people in healthcare, but by some Indian techies.
After one of them got sick, and fanatically searching for information about the virus and testing, they decided to ‘bridge the information gap’ and put together the site. It has contact information for hospitals and quarantine centers in several cities etc.
- Another map lets you check the number of documented cases.
- Google’s Flu Tracker now has more detailed views (as the one above).
Here at the Decision Theater, we have moved into a new phase of using visualization as a planning tool for emergency planning exercises. Software that enable training of healthcare workers, volunteers and those planning the logistics of dispensing medication or treatment in the event of an outbreak.
Visualization by itself is not enough, unless it is (a) connected to data and has the ability for people to input data to make it smarter; (b) it lets you adjust behaviors to make intelligent responses.
Govt prepping for swine flu encore July 9, 2009
Posted by Angelo in Arizona State University, Emergency Preparedness, pandemic.Tags: DHS, Kathleen Sebelius
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Just two weeks after the swine flu summit was held here at Arizona State University, the federal government convened a large summit today.
Kathleen Sebelius, HHS secretary pointed to the urgency at hand, and the need for preparedness:
“We can step back from our planning. What we can’t do is wait until October.”
The summit had been pulled together on the request of president Obama. It’s part of a series of heightened actions to prepare for the fall flu season.
- The department of health is seeking community participation, offering a $2,500 prize for a winning public service video. Details here.
- The government is injecting $350 million in preparedness grants for fighting the H1N1 virus. Of this $260 million will be allocated to state health departments, while $90 million will be for hospitals.
- In June, Sebelius issued a joint statement with DHS Janet Napolitano on the need to start preparing now.
New podcast on swine flu conference June 29, 2009
Posted by Angelo in Podcasts, Public Health, pandemic.Tags: H1N1, Marco Herrera, MSMSC
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Just uploaded the second podcast on the swine flu tracking that has been going on at ASU.
I had interviewed Marco Herrera, a researcher at the Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Science Center at ASU, as he was here one day in summer.
The podcast is on the media page of this blog. Click here to listen
Swine Flu conference wrap up June 26, 2009
Posted by Angelo in Emergency Preparedness, pandemic.Tags: H1Ni, swine flu
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How did the swine flu conference go? I have gotten a lot of feedback from different people who attended. Most of the attendees from out of state I spoke to were excited about how much they were beginning to share. Three things stood out: a sense of urgency, a greater need for collaboration, a need to work with more groups outside our line of sight.
The above photo is from an interactive decision-making exercise we conducted on the second day of the swine flu conference.
We equipped scientists and decision-makers with laptops, and took them through the scenarios laid out in the real pandemic flu exercise conducted in February this year.
To complement our coverage here and on our podcasts about the swine flu conference conducted last week, here are some media reports on the events.
- East Valley Tribune: Conference at ASU projects swine flu’s future - Mark Branom
- Newswise - Outsmarting Swine flu
- ASU Insight – Researchers meet at ASU to discuss Swine Flu strategies
Interview with Dr. Carlos Castillo-Chavez June 25, 2009
Posted by Angelo in Education, Events, Podcasts, pandemic.Tags: Carlos Castillo-Chavez, swine flu
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Last evening, I caught up with Dr. Carlos Castillo-Chavez, Regents Professor and Dir. of Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center (MCMSC).
Dr. Castillo-Chavez pulled together researchers for the swine flu conference taking place today. His research puts emphasis on the role of dynamic social landscapes on disease dispersal, and he has co-authored more than 175 publications on HIV, influenza, childhood diseases, STD diseases and addiction.
Swine Flu conference this week June 22, 2009
Posted by Angelo in Arizona State University, Public Health, pandemic.1 comment so far
This is the one event we had been working on for the past few weeks. Taking place from June 25 – 28.
Ever since the H1N1 virus made its appearance in April, researchers at ASU have been looking at what this might tell us about virus propagation, mitigation and using scientific and economic data to make better decisions.
This workshop will focus on:
- How can we apply what have we learned from previous epidemics to help slow the spread of this virus?
- How useful has past knowledge been in dealing with current outbreaks?
- What is our current state of preparedness?
- Do we have enough vaccines and antiviral drugs to treat every person that needs it in the USA? What about other countries?
Topics include the emergence of a super-strain of influenza, trans border risk assessment, how modeling informs policy-making in real time, the impact of school closures, simulation-based public health exercises … and much, much more.
More details here at the conference registration site.
Let’s focus on pandemic level, not panic level June 12, 2009
Posted by Angelo in Media, pandemic.Tags: H1N1, pandemic, swine flu, WHO Level 6
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‘WHO Level 6,’ which refers to the highest level to be declared by the World Health Organization is meant to trigger many responses.
But just because the word ‘panic’ happens to be embedded in the word pandemic, it’s not the proper response. In fact, there’s another word that starts with P that we have been involved in, since 2008: Preparedness.
Today’s report in The Arizona Republic looks at this current WHO alert from several angles. Surveillance, vaccination and mitigation strategies for the coming fall flu season.
Solid reporting. The stuff that we ought to see more of here.
If at all, space permitting, I would have liked to see more context so readers get a sense of where we stand in Arizona:
- What is the current state of readiness –perhaps broken down by counties
- Infection and mortality comparisons between previous flu seasons
- CDC surveillance data — virological and clinical data
Not many people still understand the difference between seasonal flu and swine flu.
Diagnostic methods have changed, and the speed of diagnostic measures reduces the demand on the national stockpile of antivirals. (source: NIAID)
That’s what I mean by context. It doesn’t hurt to help people understand what ‘Arizona on Alert’ means to them. We’re busy doing just that.
“Moderate” pandemic, now declared a Level 6 June 11, 2009
Posted by Angelo in Emergency Preparedness, Global, Public Health, pandemic.1 comment so far
The WHO today increased the pandemic level from 5 to 6. The announcement had been anticipated for weeks.
Here’s the current H1N1 status:
- 74: Countries reporting laboratory cases of H1N1
- 28,774 : Number of laboratory cases
- 144: Number of deaths
What does this mean? On Tuesday, WHO’s Assistant Director-General Dr Keiji Fukuda, at a press conference said that the virus has not mutated, and the southern hemisphere it is exhibiting similar behavior. Some other highlights of his press conference and the official WHO announcement.
- Dr. Margaret Chan, WHO’s director general,who called H1N1 “a subtle, sneaky virus” says this is a moderate pandemic.
- A pandemic is the emergence of a new virus, so there’s very little background immunity. Disease patterns are very different, says Fukuda
- It also means that some countries are moving from ‘isolated’ spread of H1N1 to ’sustained’ spread.
- It is not virulent, said Dr. Margaret Chan.
- The severity has not increased.
- “Our preparations have anticipated that we will at some point be at Level 6,” said Janet Napolitano in an April press conference –below.
FYI: In two weeks, Decision Theater will participate in ASU’s Swine Flu Workshop, that has gotten some international participation
Swine Flu, not off our radar June 5, 2009
Posted by Angelo in Collaboration, Emergency Preparedness, pandemic.Tags: Center for Biosecurity, Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, Swine flu conference, Trust for America's Health
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News about A/H1N1 may have dropped off the news, but unknown to many, there has been some good tracking studies going on.
This one, called Pandemic Flu: Lessons From the Frontlines report, was just published by the Trust for America’s Health (TFAH), the Center for Biosecurity, and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (RWJF).
Worth reading the report’s 10 lessons Learned.
The numbers may not be scary, ( 17,500 confirmed cases in 62 countries, 100 deaths) but there are enough reasons to stay vigilant. Just this week, Arizona recorded the 5th death caused bu A/H1N1. Total confirmed cases in Arizona: 580.
To pick just one of the 10 recommendations. One of which is the need for a strategic stockpile plan and deployment strategy. “While actual delivery of vaccines may occur in both public and private settings, it is vital for the public sector to be in charge of the overall system of delivery,” it says. Mass immunization may require 100 – 150 million doses to be deployed within a month.
- The Decision is involved in an exercise to address how such a stockpile deployment strategy will be planned and managed. More details to be announced shortly.
- This month’s upcoming Swine Flu conference at ASU will be on lessons learned from previous epidemics and pandemics to help prepare for a second wave, to assess current models, and to look at long-term preparedness.
Will the WHO rethink pandemic levels? May 22, 2009
Posted by Angelo in Global, Watchlist, pandemic.Tags: H1N1, swine flu, WHO
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Interesting dilemma about tracking a flu virus, as noted by Margaret Chan, Director-General of the World Health Organization, today about “a subtle, sneaky virus.”
Under some pressure from some of its 193 members, the WHO may be considering a ‘course correction’ in how it announces a pandemic threat level. Here’s what Dr. Chan had to say:
“On the other hand, this gives us a dilemma. Scientists, clinicians, and epidemiologists are capturing abundant signals. But we do not have the scientific knowledge to interpret these signals with certainty. We have clues, many clues, but very few firm conclusions.”
We include the WHO levels’ in our pandemic planning exercises, so this policy shift has interesting bearing on many local and global groups.
